Paula Lochte/Edge columnist
Since the winter of 2021, the Russian military has gathered more than 100,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine. Experts think the chances of an invasion are high. Ukraine requested Germany’s support in the form of weapons to defend, because if Russia should try to invade, Ukraine would have no chance. But weapons delivery is not a way to stop a possible war.
Germany is against a weapon’s delivery and gets a lot of criticism from other countries as a result, even though their behavior is correct. Instead, the German chancellor relies on negotiations to avoid the risk of an escalation with Russia. Which is the better way to defuse the tense situation.
Why is Russia at the Ukrainian border and what are they demanding? Ukraine wants to become a member of the NATO. The expansion of NATO to the border of Russia scares the Russian chancellor Vladimir Putin, as he sees the danger that NATO might try to attack Russia. He is demanding to stop the expansion of NATO, and wants NATO to withdraw from Eastern Europe. Helping Ukraine by a weapon delivery would make the situation even worse. It creates a more tense situation, where Germany would threaten Russia, instead of being the mediator between these two countries.
Germany does not want to support the possible war because of his history. As a icon gesture, Germany sent 5000 hard hats to Ukraine and helped with money. The economic relationship between these two countries is as good as in any other EU-country. In addition Russia is an important trading partner for Germany and acts as an important energy supplier. The controversial pipeline “Nordstream 2” supplies Germany with petroleum. If Russia invaded Ukraine, Germany would stop “Nordstream 2.” and Russia would lose a lot, because Germany is an important partner. Unfortunately Germany has not threatened the stop of “Nordstream 2” yet, even though it would be a good warning and a sign to Russia.
The problem is Germany is dependent on Russian energy. Germany’s total energy dependence in 2020 was 64% from Russia. Germany cannot replace the energy from Russia in a short time of period, so both countries would lose in the case of a war, immensely. Russia would lose more, because the country would have one less trading partner, and would being in a situation where lots of countries would not give support.
It is easy to say that Germany should help in form of weapons, like Joe Biden does, but this is not the way to prevent a war in Europe. You can not defuse the situation if you threaten a country, as it says that you should be scared of an invasion from NATO. Communication is the best way. Of course Germany should draw more attention to the consequences in case of an invasion, but the country is still dependent from Russia. Threatening to stop the pipeline would send a signal, but that is not possible because Germany needs the energy from Russia.
Even though Germany receives much of criticism, they are doing many things correct. Nobody wants a war. As Lukashenko said, there would be “no winner everybody would loose everything.” This war would impact Europe and not just these two countries. So everybody must try their best to defuse the situation.
Sources: https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article236553699/Kohle-Oel-Gas-Deutschland-kann-Energie-aus-Russland-nicht-ersetzen.html https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/ukraine-nato-russland-forderungen-sicherheitsgarantie-100.html https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/ukraine-nato-russland-forderungen-sicherheitsgarantie-100.html https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/ukraine-nato-russland-forderungen-sicherheitsgarantie-100.html https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/militaerhelme-ukraine-101.html https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Wie-Deutschland-die-Ukraine-unterstuetzt-article23125388.html